The War To End All Wars – Ended!
On Sunday, the world leaders gathered in Europe to celebrate the end of WW 1. The monarchs at that time chose the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th Month to bring a close to the carnage. More than 10 million soldiers died and millions more were disabled. The fighting involved 32 countries from all ends of the globe. Did the results of the war actually have any effects on future wars? The answer is unfortunately no.
WW I was really a feud between relatives of many different countries. What many thought would be a quick war with one side or the other throwing in the towel in a matter of months, turned out to be a bitter four-year struggle that basically ended in a stalemate. Except in Russia where the Bolsheviks’ overthrew the czar most of the other participants either gained or lost territory, but the map of Europe did not change much. The biggest loser in the war was Germany and the world would pay an unbelievable price for that loss.
Most historians focus on the trench warfare on the Western front, which was a slog thru the mud for almost four years. However, a closer look at what happened changed the face of future conflicts. While the generals and politicians tried to figure out a way to end the stalemate the scientists were coming up with more elaborate munitions that would eventually change the way war is fought. Calvary, which was the face of countless wars, was completely annihilated by the use of machine guns and powerful artillery.
Planes that began the war as a means to track troop movement ended up as a major offensive force that were used to both bomb and strafe the trenches of the enemy. Finally, near the end of the war tanks were used by the British to travel between their lines and the no man’s land that separated them from the enemy. Gas was employed by all participants but did not prove to be very effective as the change of wind could bring it back in the attackers face.
So, when the war ended on 11-11-11-1918 it set off twenty years of political change in Europe and Asia that resulted in a catastrophe that made WW I look like a barroom scuffle. You can only hope something was learned from that mess but the way the world is setting up today it appears that the likelihood of a new war of much greater proportions could be on the horizon. What a shame.
Ask Mr. Seifert
I am constantly asked questions about trading and how to exploit certain market factors to insure success. Each week I will answer one of those questions with a short paragraph which will cover the trading subject.
How do you calculate the MSS Index?
The MSS Index is a tool that I created about ten years ago. It is not an index at all but measures the amount of money flowing in and out of the markets. It does not weight the size of the stock like most indexes do. Instead it looks at the components of certain indexes and measures how much cash is coming into or leaving the market. As an example, if you buy 100 shares of APPL and it is trading at $150, $15,000 cash has entered the market. At the same time if someone sells 100 shares of TSLA at $300, $30,000 of cash has left the market. In this case -$15,000 has gone to another investment. Whether it is held in a CD or invested in Bitcoins, we know that cash has left the equities market. The MSS then measures over 2,000 of the most active stocks and produces its net number. It is gives a useful cash view of the overall health of the U.S. equity markets.
The Wise Guy Report: The View from The Electronic Floor
Each week I talk about how the Wise Guys (floor traders) find the soft spots in the market and take advantage of price dislocation in three major commodity markets: Gold (GC), Crude Oil (CL) and Long-Term Interest Rates (ZB). On the equity side, I cover MSS which is the Mister Seifert Sez Composite Index. This is a proprietary index that I created which measures the dollar flow of the four major indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 and the Dow Jones Industrials) on an unweighted basis. Let’s look at how the U.S. Equity markets are faring.
US Equities Markets (Possible Bottom)
Last week I noted that the markets seemed to have grabbed a bottom prior to the mid-term election results and that the “market expectation” was that the Republicans would keep their edge in the Senate and probably lose the House to the Democrats. It seems like that is exactly what happened. Although the Red tide may have been slightly larger than anticipated by the pollsters, and as always more vote counting will be necessary in Broward County Florida, the equity markets seem to have found a bottom and look like we could be primed for a “Santa Clause” rally. Crude Oil seems to be headed to yearly lows and that could pump more funds into the equities. Except for the U.S. it has been a bad year to own stocks in other parts of the world. Both developed and developing markets have been hit. We now have the final six weeks of the year to see if we can turn in another stellar performance in equities.
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The option trades and strategies offered by The Optionomics Group are very unique in that they all have limited risk while creating great leverage. Our basic BL – BR Credit Spread Strategy (and all of the others) let you control 100 shares of a $200 stock ($200*100 = $20,000) for only $500 (the spread differential) or 40:1 leverage with your risk limited to only $500. Plus our strategies produce winning transactions in four out of five possible outcomes.
The Optionomics strategies let you become the casino whereby you have a mathematical edge that lets you grind out consistent returns in any kind of market environment. These strategies are designed to produce good returns over a short to intermediate term time frame. It is an approach to the stock market which will be hot, cold or average over time, but the end result should be very good in any type of market environment.
I offer a FREE Two-Week trial to the various subscription services with no cost or strings attached. Each strategy is explained in a 5-7 page booklet which includes sample recommendations and model portfolios. I doubt that you have ever seen anything like this. During your FREE trial, you can paper trade the various strategies and get a feel for the deal without risking a penny. Simply click on the appropriate tab on the Optionomics’ Home page to access the informative booklets and then sign up for one or all of the weekly subscriptions.
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Each Monday morning by 11:00 EST, the plays for the upcoming week plus updated model portfolios for each strategy are posted on the site. The prices in the reports are Monday morning’s opening prices. In addition, I have a webinar on Thursday afternoon where I discuss various option strategies, what is happening on the floor and answer any questions that you may have. Don’t worry if you miss the show. They are archived on the site. Sound Good? Good! You can subscribe to one or more of the subscriptions for only $19.95 each per month on a month to month basis with no contract or strings attached. If you subscribe to three, it is only $49.95 per month while you can subscribe to all six for only $79.95 per month, a 33% discount. I think you will agree that this is a super offer so give it a try. Click on www.optionomicsgroup.com to access the Optionomics Group web site and get started today doing what the pros do –
“Don’t Buy Them – Sell Them”.
Mr. Seifert