What is Mr. Trump Doing?
Sometimes it is tough to imagine what Mr. Trump is thinking. His latest one is the new war in Turkey. Although we are the Kurdish forces main supporters and suppliers of weapons, it appears that Mr. Trump is willing to cede power to Ankara and other regional players. It seemed to be a quick switch to what was a stabilizing situation.
Mr. Trump wrote on Monday that the U.S. isn’t abandoning the Kurds. On Wednesday he mentioned that he was criticizing Turkey’s military assault but didn’t mention that the Kurds were under assault. The president further went off to say Turkey’s actions are committed to protection of religious minorities including Christians and insured that there would not be a humanitarian crisis. He further went on to say that the U.S. would hold them to this commitment.
He then tweeted that the worst foreign policy move the U.S. every got involved in was to get tangled up in the middle east, which he describes as a quagmire. On that score it is certainly hard to blame him. We have now been at war in Afghanistan for 18 years, cost us over 2 trillion dollars and thousands of lives. If we had stayed with our original goal to rid the world of Osama Bin Laden and left, things would be entirely different.
How will this end? When you look at the numbers, the U.S. cannot get the ECU to take back the 20,000 ISIS prisoners the Kurds have. The Kurds claim that they cannot not keep them forever. So, what do you do with the maniacs? Release them to the public and start the whole thing over again? You can disagree all you want with Mr. Trump, but I think it is hard to argue about this. Alexander the Great couldn’t win there. The Russians couldn’t win there, and I don’t think we can win there. It may be time to take our loss and move on.
Ask Mr. Seifert
I am constantly asked questions about trading and how to exploit certain market factors to insure success. Each week we will answer those questions with a short paragraph covering a variety of trading subjects.
Question: how do I figure profit and losses in the credit spread side of the trade when I do 21st Century Covered Call and Low Cost Put Hedge Trades?
Answer: 21st Century Covered Call Credit Spread Losses: If a stock closed above the short call option strike price, enter the loss which is the difference between the Friday close and the short call option strike price but no more than the long call option strike price less the credit received when initiating the spread. If the stock closes above the long call option, the loss is the difference between the two strike prices less the credit received when initiating the spread.
Low Cost Bullish Put Hedge Credit Spread Losses: If a stock closes below the short-put option strike price, but above the long-put strike price, enter the loss which is the difference between the Friday close and the short-put option strike price but no more than the long-put option strike price less the credit received when initiating the spread. If the stock closes below the long-put option strike, the loss is the difference between the two strike prices less the credit received when initiating the spread.
The Wise Guy Report: The View From The Floor
Each week I talk about what I think the Wise Guys (floor traders) are up to with the Big Three commodity contracts: Gold (GC), Crude Oil (CL) and Long-Term Interest Rates (ZB). I also track the Market Edge (www.marketedge.com) ‘Market Posture’ which has a twenty-six year record of forecasting the intermediate-term direction of the stock market as measure by the DJIA with around 70% accuracy.
T-Notes: More congestion last week in the ten-year. Looking for a spot to buy but can’t find a descent level. One of the things about trading is to have discipline. If the trade isn’t there for you don’t force it . Eventually the market will do what you are looking for and when that chance comes take. Right now, I only see risk in this market so why take it.
Crude Oil: Crude Oil continues to be tough.. The wholesale price is close to yearly lows, but the retail price continues to rise. Personally, I think we are now at yearly wholesale lows and I think it is a good time to leave the sidelines and get back in the fray. I am looking for a day when we test the lows and I will get long. I blew the last opportunity and am looking for another one. I think the risk reward at this level is very favorable. We shall see.
Gold: The large congestion area of the past two months continues. It appears to be a market in congestion, but I believe the shorts have the edge. Until we can make a new high or I can take profit on a break, I will continue to hold my short position. This trade is frustrating.
The Market Edge Market Posture
The Market Edge ‘Market Posture’, which has been Bullish since the week ending 10/13/2019 (DJIA 27219.52) remains Bullish at this time.
FREE Two-Week Trial Subscription
The option Trades and Strategies offered by the Optionomics Group are unique in that they all have limited risk while creating great leverage. Our basic Bullish – Bearish Credit Spread Trade lets you control 100 shares of a $200 stock, a $20,000 position for less than $500 or 40:1 leverage. Your maximum risk is always limited and our strategies produce winning trades in three out of four possible outcomes. Check out The Scoreboard on the home page to see our results.
Optionomics let you become the casino whereby you have a mathematical edge that enables you to grind out consistent returns. These strategies are designed to produce good returns over short to intermediate-term time frames in any type of market environment.
Optionomics offers a FREE Two-Week trial to its entire web site with no cost or strings attached. Each of the strategies are explained in a 5-7 page booklet which includes detailed explanations and sample recommendations. You can see how the strategies are performing every week by clicking on The Scoreboard tab on the Home page. During the trial, you can paper trade the various strategies and get a feel for the deal without risking a penny. Simply click on the appropriate tab on the Optionomics’ Home page to access the informative booklets and then sign up for the trail. As a special offer, you can download a FREE copy of my latest book, “Trading Options My Way”. I doubt that you have ever read anything like this.
The ‘Traders’ Subscription Includes The Following:
- The Bullish – Bearish Credit Spread Trade: A basic strategy to trading weekly credit spreads.
- The One Day Wonder Trade: A one day trade with great consistency and upside potential.
- The Blow Off Top – Bottom Trade: A lot of action and big moves too.
- The Earnings Season Trade: Potential big movers with little or no downside risk.
The ‘Investors’ Subscription Includes The Following:
- The 21st Century Covered Call Strategy: A modern day alternative to the old fashioned covered call strategy.
- The Low Cost Put-Call Hedge Strategy: Sleep at night knowing your portfolio is protected for little or no cost.
- The Billionaire Risk Reverse Strategy: Big time leverage – small time risk.
Each Monday morning by 11:00 EST, the recommendations for each strategy are posted on the Optionomics’ web site. In addition, the updated results from the previous week are posted on the Optionomics’ Scoreboard. I also have a webinar on Thursday afternoon where I discuss various option strategies, what is happening on the trading floors and answer any questions that you may have. Don’t worry if you miss the show. They are archived on the site. Sound Good? Good! You can subscribe to either the Traders or the Investor plans at an introductory special of only $39.95 each per month on a month to month basis with no contract or strings attached. That’s $10.00 off the regular subscription rate ($49.95). If you subscribe to both it is only $64.95 per month. I think you will agree that this is a super offer so give it a try. Go to www.optionomicsgroup.com and get started today doing what the pros do –
“Don’t Buy Them – Sell Them”.
Mr. Seifert