The following are this week’s Low Cost Put Hedge Candidates. The actual Selections will be posted on Monday around 11:00 AM EST. It should be noted that depending on market conditions, not all of these candidates will be listed as selections.
This Weeks Low Cost Put Hedge Candidates
The following are this week’s Low Cost Put Hedge Selections and the results for the previous week’s Open Positions. Each week, if conditions warrant one or more new stock positions are added to the Open Positions list. These stocks have a Bullish technical Opinion from Market Edge. The stocks and option spreads are added to the portfolio based on Monday’s opening prices. The stocks are removed from the portfolio after twelve weeks or if the Market Edge Opinion is downgraded from Bullish. To access The Low Cost Put Hedge informative booklet click on the Get The Booklet tab located on the home page or at the bottom of this page.
This Week’s Low Cost Put Hedge New Selections
There is one new selections this week: PEP
| Market Edge Opinion: The current technical condition of PEP is weak. The underlying indicators are negative and a reversal of the existing trend seems unlikely at this time. The stock has underperformed the market when compared to the S&P 500 over the last 50 trading days. While the technical condition for PEP is weak, the MACD-LT, an intermediate-term trend indicator, is bullish at this time. PEP’s chart formation indicates the stock is in a strong downward trend. Momentum, as measured by the 9-day RSI, is positive but beginning to slow. Over the last 50 trading sessions, there has been more volume on down days than on up days indicating that PEP is under distribution, which is a bearish condition. The stock is trading below a falling 50-day moving average which confirms the weak technical condition of PEP. In addition, PEP is below its falling 200-day moving average.
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Current Open Positions
| Market Posture: | Bullish | VIX–> | 13.46 | Neutral | ||||||
| Prices Are Monday’s Opening Prices | ||||||||||
| # Of | Stock | S-Put | L-Put | Credit | A-Put | A-Put | A-Put | Approx | Approx | |
| Stock | Weeks | Price | Strike | Strike | Spread | Ex. Date | Strike | Debit | Div Date | Dividend |
| MSFT | 7 | $100.99 | 101.0 | 100.0 | $0.38 | 07/20/18 | 95.0 | $4.45 | None | $0.00 |
| CVX | 7 | $124.91 | 125.0 | 124.0 | $0.41 | 07/20/18 | 120.0 | $4.40 | 05/17/18 | $1.12 |
| MCD | 6 | $160.29 | 160.0 | 157.5 | $0.68 | 07/20/18 | 165.0 | $4.65 | 06/01/18 | $1.01 |
| XLE | 5 | $76.79 | 77.5 | 76.0 | $0.68 | 07/20/18 | 175.0 | $2.43 | None | $0.00 |
| LULU | 4 | $124.33 | 125.0 | 123.0 | $0.92 | 09/21/18 | 100.0 | $8.45 | None | $0.00 |
| HSY | 3 | $91.44 | 91.5 | 90.5 | $0.41 | 08/17/18 | 95.0 | $5.30 | None | $0.00 |
| PYPL | 3 | $83.42 | 83.5 | 82.0 | $0.52 | 08/17/18 | 82.5 | $4.85 | None | $0.00 |
| SWKS | 2 | $100.30 | 101.0 | 99.0 | $0.82 | 08/17/18 | 100.0 | $5.30 | None | $0.00 |
| UTX | 2 | $126.61 | 127.0 | 125.0 | $0.77 | 08/17/18 | 125.0 | $3.50 | None | $0.00 |
| PEP | 1 | $100.31 | 101.0 | 99.5 | $0.70 | 08/17/18 | 100.0 | $2.50 | None | $0.00 |
Model Portfolio – Track Record
The performance figures for the Model Portfolio are based on a hypothetical bank roll of $100,000. Dividends and transaction fees are not included in the calculations. The anchor put debit/credits are included in the results once the position is closed.
| S&P: | 01/26/18 | 2872.87 | Dollar Profit/Loss = Stock Price Friday – Adjusted Stock Price + (Anchor | |||||||||
| S&P: | 06/01/18 | 2734.62 | Close Credit – Anchor Open Debit) When The Position Is Closed** | |||||||||
| S&P Points Gain/Loss: | -138.25 | |||||||||||
| S&P % Gain/Loss: | -4.8% | Adjusted Stock Price = Open Stock Price – Total Spread Profit / Loss | ||||||||||
| Risk Capital: | $100,000 | |||||||||||
| Put Hedge Total P/L: | -$364 | *Spread Losses Occur When The Stock’s Friday Close Is Below | ||||||||||
| Hedge Total % Return: | -0.4% | The Short Put Strike Price | ||||||||||
| # Of Weeks: | 17 | |||||||||||
| Hedge To S&P P/L Ratio: | 4.8 | :1 | **Anchor Put – Debit/Credits Included In P/L Calculations Only When | |||||||||
| Win % – Adjusted Prices: | 39.3% | Positions Are Closed | ||||||||||
| Transaction Costs & Dividends Not Included | ||||||||||||
| Open | Open | Anchor | Anchor | Total | Adjust | Close | Stock | Anchor | Dollar | % | Anchor | |
| Date | Stock | Strike | Open | Spread | Stock | Date | Price | Close | Profit | Profit | Exp | |
| Stock | Monday | Price | Price | Debit | Profit / Loss | Price | Friday | Friday | Credit | Loss | Loss | Date |
| CELG | 01/29/18 | $105.23 | 105.0 | $5.50 | -$0.59 | $105.82 | 02/16/18 | $95.26 | $10.40 | -$5.66 | -5.4% | 04/20/18 |
| GILD | 01/29/18 | $87.82 | 87.5 | $4.50 | $0.43 | $87.39 | 04/06/18 | $73.41 | $14.27 | -$4.21 | -4.8% | 04/20/18 |
| SLB | 01/29/18 | $77.18 | 77.0 | $1.72 | -$2.19 | $79.37 | 02/16/18 | $66.28 | $10.20 | -$4.61 | -6.0% | 04/20/18 |
| EA | 01/29/18 | $116.12 | 115.0 | $4.60 | -$1.62 | $117.74 | 04/20/18 | $120.89 | $0.00 | -$1.45 | -1.2% | 04/20/18 |
| ADSK | 01/29/18 | $117.84 | 115.0 | $5.80 | -$2.59 | $120.43 | 05/11/18 | $136.21 | $0.00 | $9.98 | 8.5% | 04/20/18 |
| WDC | 01/29/18 | $89.33 | 90.0 | $5.50 | -$3.32 | $92.65 | 05/04/18 | $80.88 | $12.75 | -$4.52 | -5.1% | 05/25/18 |
| PEP | 02/05/18 | $118.24 | 120.0 | $4.35 | -$1.12 | $119.36 | 02/09/18 | $111.18 | $7.35 | -$5.18 | -4.4% | 04/20/18 |
| XOM | 02/05/18 | $82.98 | 82.5 | $2.75 | -$1.21 | $84.19 | 02/16/18 | $76.54 | $6.15 | -$4.25 | -5.1% | 04/20/18 |
| DECK | 02/12/18 | $93.90 | 92.5 | $5.15 | $2.11 | $91.79 | 04/20/18 | $89.00 | $3.50 | -$4.44 | -4.7% | 04/20/18 |
| NOW | 02/19/18 | $154.18 | 155.0 | $7.40 | -$0.55 | $154.73 | 05/18/18 | $173.94 | $0.00 | $11.81 | 7.7% | 04/20/18 |
| WDAY | 02/19/18 | $125.25 | 125.0 | $7.53 | -$1.81 | $127.06 | 05/04/18 | $130.05 | $0.00 | -$4.54 | -3.6% | 04/20/18 |
| JPM | 02/26/18 | $117.90 | 120.0 | $5.10 | -$3.54 | $121.44 | 03/23/18 | $107.01 | $13.60 | -$5.93 | -5.0% | 04/20/18 |
| SWKS | 03/05/18 | $109.14 | 110.0 | $6.70 | -$4.32 | $113.46 | 04/06/18 | $95.56 | $14.70 | -$9.90 | -9.1% | 05/18/18 |
| ATHN | 03/26/18 | $139.00 | 140.0 | $6.70 | $3.03 | $135.97 | 04/20/18 | $146.07 | $5.80 | $9.20 | 6.6% | 06/15/18 |
| AMT | 04/02/18 | $146.40 | 145.0 | $4.18 | -$2.44 | $148.84 | 04/13/18 | $138.90 | $7.30 | -$6.82 | -4.7% | 05/18/18 |
| TLT | 04/09/18 | $120.67 | 120.0 | $2.47 | $0.53 | $120.14 | 05/18/18 | $117.21 | $2.79 | -$2.61 | -2.2% | 05/18/18 |
| PG | 04/16/18 | $78.28 | 77.5 | $2.70 | -$1.17 | $79.45 | 05/04/18 | $72.43 | $5.75 | -$3.97 | -5.1% | 07/20/18 |
| MSFT | 04/23/18 | $95.36 | 95.0 | $4.45 | $1.50 | $93.86 | $100.79 | $6.93 | 7.3% | 07/20/18 | ||
| CVX | 04/23/18 | $122.40 | 120.0 | $4.00 | $0.71 | $121.69 | $123.85 | $2.16 | 1.8% | 07/20/18 | ||
| MCD | 04/30/18 | $166.00 | 165.0 | $4.65 | -$2.30 | $168.30 | $159.16 | -$9.14 | -5.5% | 07/20/18 | ||
| XLE | 05/07/18 | $75.33 | 75.0 | $2.43 | $1.33 | $74.00 | $76.38 | $2.38 | 3.2% | 07/20/18 | ||
| ALXN | 05/07/18 | $117.46 | 115.0 | $5.90 | $0.42 | $117.04 | 05/25/18 | $117.74 | $7.35 | $2.15 | 1.8% | 07/20/18 |
| LULU | 05/14/18 | $98.68 | 100.0 | $8.45 | $2.93 | $95.75 | $122.19 | $26.44 | 26.8% | 09/21/18 | ||
| HSY | 05/21/18 | $92.50 | 95.0 | $5.30 | $0.56 | $91.94 | $90.01 | -$1.93 | -2.1% | 08/17/18 | ||
| PYPL | 05/21/18 | $81.35 | 82.5 | $4.85 | $0.61 | $80.74 | $83.25 | $2.51 | 3.1% | 08/17/18 | ||
| SWKS | 05/29/18 | $100.02 | 100.0 | $5.30 | $1.34 | $98.68 | $100.97 | $2.29 | 2.3% | 08/17/18 | ||
| UTX | 05/29/18 | $126.48 | 125.0 | $3.50 | -$0.36 | $126.84 | $125.81 | -$1.03 | -0.8% | 08/17/18 | ||
| PEP | 06/04/18 | $100.31 | 100.0 | $2.50 | $0.70 | $99.61 | $100.31 | $0.70 | 0.7% | 08/17/18 | ||