The following are this week’s Low Cost Put Hedge Selections and the results for the previous week’s Open transactions. Each week, if conditions warrant one or more new stock position is added to the Open Positions list. These stocks have a Long technical Opinion from Market Edge. The stocks and option spreads are added to the portfolio based on Monday’s opening prices. The stocks are removed from the portfolio after twelve weeks or if the Market Edge Opinion is downgraded. To access The Low Cost Put Hedge informative booklet click on the Get The Book tab located on the home page or on the Download button located above.
This Week’s Low Cost Put Hedge New Selections
There is one new selection for this week – PG..
| Market Edge Opinion: PG
The technical condition of PG is improving. Some of the indicators have turned positive suggesting that a bottom in the stock price has likely occurred. The stock is underperforming the market over the last 50 trading days when compared to the S&P 500. The MACD-LT, an intermediate-term trend indicator, is bullish at this time. PG’s chart formation suggests an upward trend is beginning/ stock is in the early stages of a rising trend. A close above $80.93 is a number to watch to confirm a trend reversal. Momentum as measured by the 9-day RSI is gaining in strength. Over the last 50 trading sessions, there has been more volume on up days than on down days indicating that PG is under accumulation, which is a bullish condition. The stock is trading below a falling 50-day moving average. A close above this moving average would be supportive of the improving conditions.
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Current Open Selections
| Market Posture: | Bearish | VIX–> | 17.40 | Bearish | ||||||
| Prices Are Monday’s Opening Prices | ||||||||||
| Weeks | Stock | Short Put | Long Put | Credit | Anchor Put | Anchor Put | Anchor Put | Approx | Approx | |
| Stock | In Play | Price | Strike | Strike | Spread | Ex. Date | Strike | Debit | Div Date | Dividend |
| EA | 10 | $121.40 | 122.0 | 120.0 | $0.90 | 03/16/18 | 115.0 | $4.60 | None | $0.00 |
| ADSK | 10 | $130.34 | 131.0 | 129.0 | $0.84 | 04/20/18 | 115.0 | $5.80 | None | $0.00 |
| WDC | 10 | $89.40 | 89.0 | 88.0 | $0.36 | 04/20/18 | 90.0 | $5.50 | 03/28/18 | $0.50 |
| DECK | 8 | $95.37 | 95.0 | 92.5 | $0.86 | 04/20/18 | 92.5 | $5.15 | None | $0.00 |
| NOW | 7 | $167.86 | 167.5 | 165.0 | $0.85 | 04/20/18 | 155.0 | $7.40 | None | $0.00 |
| WDAY | 7 | $125.57 | 125.0 | 123.0 | $0.76 | 04/20/18 | 125.0 | $7.53 | None | $0.00 |
| ATHN | 4 | $143.72 | 145.0 | 140.0 | $2.59 | 06/15/18 | 140.0 | $9.60 | None | $0.00 |
| TLT | 2 | $120.67 | 120.5 | 119.5 | $0.38 | 07/20/18 | 120.0 | $2.47 | None | $0.00 |
| PG | 1 | $78.28 | 79.0 | 78.0 | $0.63 | 20-Jul | 77.5 | $2.70 | 04/19/18 | $0.72 |
Model Portfolio – Track Record
The performance figures for the Model Portfolio are based on a hypothetical bank roll of $100,000. Dividends and transaction costs are not included in the calculations. The anchor put debit/credits are included in the results once the position is closed.
| S&P: | 01/26/18 | 2872.87 | |||||||||||||
| S&P: | 04/13/18 | 2656.30 | |||||||||||||
| S&P Points Gain/Loss: | -216.57 | ||||||||||||||
| S&P % Gain/Loss: | -7.5% | ||||||||||||||
| Risk Capital: | $100,000 | ||||||||||||||
| Put Hedge Total P/L: | -$1,163 | ||||||||||||||
| Hedge Total % Return: | -1.2% | ||||||||||||||
| # Of Weeks: | 10 | ||||||||||||||
| Hedge To S&P P/L Ratio: | 6.0 | To 1 | |||||||||||||
| Win % – Adjusted Prices: | 29.4% | ||||||||||||||
| *Transaction Costs & Dividends Not Included | |||||||||||||||
| *Anchor Put – Debit/Credits Only Included In P/L Calculations When Positions Are Closed | |||||||||||||||
| Credit | Credit | Credit | |||||||||||||
| Wk #1 | Wk #5 | Wk #9 | Anchor | Anchor | Anchor | ||||||||||
| Open | Open | Wk #2 | Wk #6 | Wk #10 | Anchor | Put | Total | Adjust | Close | Stock | Put | Dollar | % | Put | |
| Date | Stock | Wk #3 | Wk #7 | Wk #11 | Put | Open | Spread | Stock | Date | Price | Close | Profit | Profit | Exp | |
| Stock | Monday | Price | Wk #4 | Wk #8 | Wk #12 | Strike | Debit | Loss | Price | Friday | Friday | Credit | Loss | Loss | Date |
| CELG | 01/29/18 | $105.23 | $0.41 | Closed | 105.0 | $5.50 | -$2.00 | $105.82 | 02/16/18 | $95.26 | $10.40 | -$5.66 | -5.4% | 04/20/18 | |
| $0.40 | |||||||||||||||
| $0.60 | |||||||||||||||
| GILD | 01/29/18 | $87.82 | $0.64 | $0.62 | 87.5 | $4.50 | -$6.39 | $90.00 | 04/06/18 | $73.41 | $14.27 | -$6.82 | -7.8% | 04/20/18 | |
| $0.65 | $0.70 | ||||||||||||||
| $0.59 | $0.51 | ||||||||||||||
| $0.50 | Closed | ||||||||||||||
| SLB | 01/29/18 | $77.18 | $0.38 | Closed | 77.0 | $1.72 | -$3.22 | $78.88 | 02/16/18 | $66.28 | $10.20 | -$4.12 | -5.3% | 04/20/18 | |
| $0.55 | |||||||||||||||
| $0.59 | |||||||||||||||
| EA | 01/29/18 | $116.12 | $0.50 | $0.39 | $0.90 | 115.0 | $4.60 | -$6.00 | $116.16 | $120.51 | $4.35 | 3.7% | 03/16/18 | ||
| $0.40 | $0.99 | ||||||||||||||
| $0.81 | $0.73 | ||||||||||||||
| $0.39 | $0.85 | ||||||||||||||
| ADSK | 01/29/18 | $117.84 | $0.79 | $0.90 | 0.84 | 115.0 | $5.80 | -$8.00 | $118.42 | $129.17 | $10.75 | 9.1% | 04/20/18 | ||
| $0.78 | $1.05 | ||||||||||||||
| $0.78 | $0.88 | ||||||||||||||
| $0.57 | $0.83 | ||||||||||||||
| WDC | 01/29/18 | $89.33 | $0.45 | $0.40 | 0.36 | 90.0 | $5.50 | -$6.98 | $91.93 | $89.93 | -$2.00 | -2.2% | 04/20/18 | ||
| $0.42 | 0.65 | ||||||||||||||
| $0.40 | 0.68 | ||||||||||||||
| $0.42 | 0.60 | ||||||||||||||
| PEP | 02/05/18 | $118.24 | $0.88 | Closed | 120.0 | $4.35 | -$2.00 | $119.36 | 02/09/18 | $111.18 | $7.35 | -$5.18 | -4.4% | 04/20/18 | |
| XOM | 02/05/18 | $82.98 | $0.87 | Closed | 82.5 | $2.75 | -$2.46 | $84.19 | 02/16/18 | $76.54 | $6.15 | -$4.25 | -5.1% | 04/20/18 | |
| $0.38 | |||||||||||||||
| DECK | 02/12/18 | $93.90 | $0.63 | $0.62 | 92.5 | $5.15 | -$1.12 | $88.74 | $94.96 | $6.22 | 6.6% | 04/20/18 | |||
| $0.82 | $0.55 | ||||||||||||||
| $0.42 | $0.86 | ||||||||||||||
| $0.75 | |||||||||||||||
| NOW | 02/19/18 | $154.18 | $0.56 | $1.07 | 155.0 | $7.40 | -$7.06 | $152.63 | $166.90 | $14.27 | 9.3% | 04/20/18 | |||
| $1.90 | $1.93 | ||||||||||||||
| $1.30 | $0.85 | ||||||||||||||
| $1.00 | |||||||||||||||
| WDAY | 02/19/18 | $125.25 | $0.61 | $0.72 | 125.0 | $7.53 | -$8.00 | $128.21 | $124.71 | -$3.50 | -2.8% | 04/20/18 | |||
| $0.45 | $0.80 | ||||||||||||||
| $0.65 | $0.76 | ||||||||||||||
| $1.05 | |||||||||||||||
| JPM | 02/26/18 | $117.90 | $0.70 | Closed | 120.0 | $5.10 | -$3.00 | $118.83 | 03/23/18 | $107.01 | $13.60 | -$3.32 | -2.8% | 04/20/18 | |
| $0.63 | |||||||||||||||
| $0.74 | |||||||||||||||
| SWKS | 03/05/18 | $109.14 | $0.67 | Closed | 110.0 | $6.70 | -$5.50 | $112.66 | 04/06/18 | $95.56 | $14.70 | -$9.10 | -8.3% | 05/18/18 | |
| $0.67 | |||||||||||||||
| $0.64 | |||||||||||||||
| ATHN | 03/26/18 | $139.00 | $0.80 | 140.0 | $6.70 | -$2.00 | $136.90 | $142.20 | $5.30 | 3.8% | 06/15/18 | ||||
| $0.71 | |||||||||||||||
| $2.59 | |||||||||||||||
| AMT | 04/02/18 | $146.40 | $0.63 | Closed | 145.0 | $4.18 | -$4.00 | $148.84 | 04/13/18 | $138.90 | $7.30 | -$6.82 | -4.7% | 05/18/18 | |
| $0.93 | |||||||||||||||
| TLT | 04/09/18 | $120.67 | $0.44 | 145.0 | $2.47 | -$0.10 | $119.95 | 04/29/00 | $120.67 | -$1.75 | -1.5% | 05/18/18 | |||
| $0.38 | |||||||||||||||
| PG | 04/16/18 | $78.28 | $0.72 | 77.5 | 78% | 07/20/18 | |||||||||
| $0.00 | |||||||||||||||