The Billionaire Risk Reversal Strategy For The Week Of – 06-03-19

by | May 31, 2019 | Billionaire Trade

Quick Take: The Bullish – Billionaire, Risk Reversal Strategy

Holding Period: One to twelve weeks.

Stock: Bullish Market Edge Opinion – No stock position.

Option Positions: Two separate transactions.

1) Combo Trade: Long a 75–90 day ATM call, short a 75–90 day ATM put and long a 75–90 day ATM -1  put resulting in a debit.

2) Weekly Call Credit Spreads: Short an ATM weekly call and long an ATM +1 weekly call resulting in a credit. The credits from selling the weekly call credit spreads should help pay for the long ATM-1 put in the Combo Trade.

Desired Result: Stock moves up in price.

Cash Requirement: The debit paid for the Combo Trade plus the width of the weekly call spread (difference between the strike prices). Depending on the price and implied volatility of the underlying stock, the cash requirement for the transaction should vary between $500 – $3,000. Potential leverage: 6-20:1.

Maximum Risk: If the stock declines in value, the loss would be the Combo Trade’s debit plus the width of the put spread less the credits received from selling the weekly call spreads.

Summary: The risk reversal strategy produces a gain or a loss in line with the movement of the stock’s price.  The long ATM -1 put provides downside protection and also reduces the cash requirement for the transaction. Since you are buying premium (the ATM -1 put), you wat to sell the weekly call credit spreads to pay for that put.  Ideally, the weekly credits will offset the premium paid for the ATM -1 put but if the stock moves up quickly, the call spreads could lose money.  Usually, but not always, a weekly call spread’s loss is offset by an increase in the value of the Combo Trade.

The Stock Closes Higher At Expiration:

The Combo Trade:

  1. The long-call component of the trade would settle in line with the stock.
  2. The put spread, short ATM put – long ATM -1 put would expire worthless.
  3. The dollar value of the Combo Trade would be higher than the initial debit.

The Weekly-Credit Spread Trades:

  1. The credits from the weekly call spreads would accumulate and add to the overall profit.
  2. The total amount of weekly credits would be dependent on the number of weeks that the trade is open.
  3. There would be a spread loss each week that the stock closes above the short call strike price but the loss would never be more than the width of the spread. There is no spread loss if the stock closes below the short call strike price. The spread loss is offset by the gain in the long call part of the combo trade.

The Stock Closes Lower At Expiration:

The Combo Trade:

  1. The long-call component of the trade would expire worthless.
  2. The put spread, short ATM put – long ATM -1 put would offset the decline in the call.
  3. The dollar value of the Combo Trade would be lower than the initial debit.

The Weekly-Credit Spread Trades:

  1. The credits from the weekly call spreads would accumulate and reduce the overall loss.
  2. The total amount of weekly credits would be dependent on the number of weeks that the trade is open.
  3. There would be a spread loss each week that the stock closes above the short call strike price but the loss would never be more than the width of the spread. There is no spread loss if the stock closes below the short call strike price.

 

There is one new selection for this week. ADBE

On 05/30/2019, The current technical condition for ADBE is strong and the underlying indicators should keep the current uptrend intact. The stock has outperformed the market over the last 50 trading days when compared to the S&P 500. Over the last 50 trading sessions, there has been more volume on up days than on down days indicating that ADBE is under accumulation, which is a bullish condition. The stock is trading above a rising 50-day moving average. This validates the strong technical condition for ADBE. The stock is above its 200-day moving average which is pointed up indicating that the intermediate term trend is bullish.

Current Billionaire Risk Reversal Positions

Market Posture: Bullish
Stock Prices Are Friday Afternoon
Long Call Short Put Long Put Combo Short Long Call
# Of Stock Combo Combo Combo Combo Spread 06/07/19 06/07/19 Spread Total
Stock Weeks Price Exp. Date ATM SP ATM SP ATM -1 SP Debit ATM Call ATM +2 Call Credit Cost
PYPL 7 $109.88 07/19/19 105.0 105.0 100.0 $4.99 110.0 112.0 $0.87 $4.12
DIS 4 $132.01 09/20/19 130.0 130.0 125.0 $5.70 132.0 134.0 $0.85 $4.85
MCD 4 $198.25 09/20/19 200.0 200.0 195.0 $4.95 197.5 200.0 $1.28 $3.67
UNH 3 $242.46 09/20/19 240.0 240.0 230.0 $10.45 242.5 245.0 $1.21 $9.24
ADBE 1 $270.59 09/20/19 270.0 270.0 265.0 $18.65 270.0 272.5 $1.25 $17.40

 

Results for this week’s trades will be posted over the weekend on the Scoreboard.